NFL playoff picture at Week 16: Bengals win, Jaguars now AFC South favorites

Half of the 14 playoff spots are clinched after the first game of Week 16. Here’s a picture of the NFL playoffs after the Jaguars’ 19-3 win over the Jets on Thursday night. The odds listed for making the playoffs, securing the No. 1 seed, and winning the Super Bowl are all-through athleticNFL betting model of, created by Austin Mock. Possible Week 18 rest scenarios and projected playoff chances adjusted for injuries to quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill.

afc playoff picture

Seed Team Record week 16 results

x 1

11-3

in chi

Y-2

11-3

vs sea

X-3

10-4

in NE

4

7-7

vs HOU

5

9-5

vs atl

6

8-6

in the industries

7

8-6

vs GB

x — clinched a playoff berth. y – Division title achieved

buffalo bill

Three games up in the AFC East standings, the Bills can clinch their third straight division title with a win or tie against the Bears on Saturday or a Dolphins loss or tie against the Packers on Sunday.

Rest of the schedule: At Bears, At Bengals, At Patriots

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 60.1 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 14.2 percent

kansas city chiefs

The Chiefs clinched their seventh consecutive AFC West title in Week 15, so the No. 1 seed remains in the chase for them. After losing head-to-head matchups against both the Bills and Bengals, the Chiefs needed to finish with a better record than either of those teams to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the conference championship round. would be required.

Rest of the schedule: vs Seahawks vs Broncos at Raiders

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Buy to earn: 36.2 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 12.8 percent

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Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets’ loss to the Jaguars on Thursday clinched a playoff berth for the Bengals. Cincinnati last made consecutive playoff appearances during their five-year run from 2011–2015. Our model gives the Bengals a 68.5 percent chance of winning the AFC North.

Rest of the schedule: Patriots vs Bills vs Ravens

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Buy to earn: 3.7 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 6.3 percent

tennessee titans

A Jaguars win on Thursday night puts more pressure on the Titans, who have lost four straight, will “most likely” be without Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season and now hold just a half-game lead in the AFC South standings. in Tennessee’s Week 16 game against the Texans.

The Jaguars won the first head-to-head meeting with the Titans. The second head-to-head in Jacksonville in Week 18 is setting up to be a winner-take-all matchup as long as the Jaguars post an identical or better record than the Titans over the next two weeks.

If the Titans play the Jaguars ahead of Week 18, a Jacksonville win in the regular season finale would tie the two teams’ overall records and give the Jaguars the head-to-head tiebreaker.

If the Jaguars enter Week 18 a game ahead of the Titans, a Tennessee win will give the Titans the division by virtue of a better divisional record, as both teams are 3–2 in their regular season finale against the AFC South in this scenario. Will enter from Like the Titans, the Jaguars have one more game against the Texans on their schedule.

Our model gives Tennessee a 46.3 percent chance of winning the AFC South for the third year in a row.

Rest of the schedule: vs texans vs cowboys in jaguars

odds: To make the playoffs: 47.7 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.6 percent

Baltimore Ravens

crows could clinch a playoff berth this weekend with any one of five scenarios that include a win or tie by them and a win, loss or tie by seven other teams. There’s even a scenario that regardless of the outcome, Baltimore gets it if the Patriots lose. Brown’sraiders and titans Lose or tie, and the Chargers win.

but as athletic‘s Jeff Zerebic Writes, It will be difficult to consider the Ravens as a serious contender come playoff time without a version of Lamar Jackson that can put this team on its back. The quarterback would miss his third consecutive game with a knee injury.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Falcons, vs. Steelers, in Bengals

odds: To make the playoffs: 96.7 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.5 percent

los angeles chargers

chargers clinch a playoff berth with a win in Indianapolis on Monday and a combination of a loss or a tie Raiders, Patriotjet and/or Dolphin, According to our model, they face the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, starting with a trip to Indianapolis to face a Colts team that will feature starting quarterback Nick Foles for the first time this weekend.

The Chargers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins and have a better conference record (6–4) than the seven-win teams: the Patriots (5–4) and the Jets (5–6). The Jaguars are also 6-4 against the AFC after Thursday night’s win.

Rest of the schedule: at the Colts, vs. the Rams, at the Broncos

odds: To make the playoffs: 85.8 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.7 percent

miami dolphins

The Dolphins, who have lost three in a row, will miss the playoffs this weekend. Their upcoming games against the Patriots and Jets are potentially high-leverage considering that both teams currently sit behind them in the standings.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets

odds: To make the playoffs: 82.5 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.2 percent

in the hunt

  • Patriots (7-7) | Chances of making the playoffs: 23.0 percent
  • Jets (7-8) | 5.4 percent
  • Jaguar (7-8) | 54.9 percent
  • Brown (6-8) | <1.0 percent
  • Steelers (6-8) | <1.0 percent
  • Raiders (6-8) | 3.0 percent

annihilated

  • Broncos (4-10)
  • Colts (4-9-1)
  • Texas (1-12-1)

nfc playoff picture

Seed Team Record week 16 results

x 1

13-1

in the dal

Y-2

11-3

vs nyg

Y-3

10-4

was vs

4

6-8

in ARI

X-5

10-4

vs PHI

6

8-5-1

at min

7

7-6-1

on sf

x — clinched a playoff berth. y – Division title achieved

philadelphia eagles

The Eagles, who will be without Jalen Hurts this weekend, punched their playoff ticket in Week 14 but have not yet officially clinched the NFC East or secured the No. 1 seed. Here’s how they both fared in week 16:

  • Win the NFC East with a win or a tie against the Cowboys
  • 1 seed with a win against the Cowboys or a tie against the Cowboys and a Vikings loss or tie against the Giants

Rest of the schedule: Cowboys vs. Saints vs. Giants

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 95.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 16.5 percent

minnesota vikings

Even if the Vikings lose, they can’t finish worse than the No. 3 seed. For that, they can thank the poor state of the NFC South.

According to our model, Minnesota has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Giants, at Packers, at Bears

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Buy to earn: 1.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 9.0 percent

san francisco 49ers

The 49ers recognize that their chances of clinching the No. 1 seed are slim, but San Francisco made it clear this week that it is shooting to win and overtake the Vikings for the No. 2 seed.

Rest of the schedule: vs. Commander, vs. Raiders, vs. Cardinals

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Buy to earn: 1.7 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.2 percent

tampa bay buccaneers

The 6-8 Bucs are one game ahead of the three other teams in their division, all of whom are 5-9. Amazingly, the Panthers seem to be in control of their own destiny, as they won their first matchup against the Bucs. The second comes in week 17 in Tampa. Our model gives Carolina a 10.4 percent chance of winning the NFC South, compared to 83.7 percent for the Bucs.

Rest of the schedule: At Cardinals, vs. Panthers, At Falcons

odds: To make the playoffs: 83.8 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 3.3 percent

dallas cowboys

The Cowboys clinched a playoff spot last week when the Giants beat the Commanders, but according to our model, Dallas has just a 3.6 percent chance of winning the NFC East and a 1.8 percent chance of clinching the No. 1 seed.

Rest of the schedule: In Titans vs. Eagles, on Commanders

odds: To make the playoffs: 100 percent | Bye to earn: 1.8 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 5.1 percent

new york giants

With a combination of a win against the Vikings and losses by the Commanders, Lions and Seahawks, the Giants can secure their first playoff berth since 2016 this weekend. Just a win in Minnesota would boost the Giants’ playoff odds to more than 90 percent.

Rest of the schedule: At Vikings, vs. Colts, At Eagles

odds: To make the playoffs: 80.1 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.9 percent

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washington commanders

Washington cited the key playoff advantage from last week’s loss to the Giants. The Commanders are seven-point underdogs heading into their road matchup against the 49ers.

Rest of the schedule: at 49ers, vs Browns, vs Cowboys

odds: To make the playoffs: 37.6 percent | Bye to earn: 0.0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.8 percent

in the hunt

  • Seahawks (7-7) | Chances of making the playoffs: 18.1 percent
  • Singh (7-7) | 57.1 percent
  • Packers (6-8) | 6.9 percent
  • Panthers (5-9) | 10.4 percent
  • Falcon (5-9) | 3.0 percent
  • Saints (5-9) | 3.1 percent

annihilated

  • Bear (3-11)
  • Cardinals (4-10)
  • rams (4-10)

(Photo: Vincent Carchietta / USA TODAY)



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